With the 2026 midterm elections less than six weeks away, a wave of new polling shows President Donald Trump's unpopularity and economic policies are dragging down Republican candidates across the country. A survey from PBS News, NPR and Marist released Tuesday found Democrats leading Republicans by 53 percent to 41 percent on the generic congressional ballot, while independents favor Democrats by 25 points. The findings, first reported by PBS and NPR, come as election administrators in several states have already begun sending out mail ballots ahead of the November 3 vote.

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President Donald Trump pulled out all the stops at the Republican party's midterm convention two weeks ago, delivering speeches aimed at the voters who will soon decide whether Republicans keep control of Congress for the final phase of his presidency. According to The Guardian, Trump dangled $5,000 checks and warned that the United States would turn into a communist country if Democrats are elected. The unprecedented political gathering amounted to a hail-mary pass at retaining control of Congress, which history indicated Trump's Republican allies had always been likely to lose in the November 3 vote.

Two weeks later, with election administrators in several states already sending out mail ballots, there is no indication the gambit has worked. Polls have continued to show Democrats with an edge on the generic ballot, a key indicator of voter sentiment in congressional races, as well as in some key Senate contests such as North Carolina and Georgia, both states Trump won two years ago. Forecasters have moved their ratings of other battleground races almost uniformly in Democrats' favor, despite Republican-led states' concerted effort to redraw House districts in the party's favor.

Trump's approval ratings remain low, with some surveys finding him underwater among key groups. The PBS News/NPR/Marist poll found that more than half of registered voters, 53 percent, say they would vote for Democratic candidates if the election were today, while 41 percent prefer Republicans. Independents, who often decide competitive races, favor Democrats by a margin of 25 points.

Driving this sentiment is a president who isn't on the ballot but has asked voters to pretend he is. About 7 in 10 voters acknowledge the president is a factor, one way or another, in their vote for Congress. Just 30 percent of voters say Trump isn't a factor in their vote. According to PBS, Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, described the Democrats as sitting in a very good place, noting there is a lot of grumbling in the electorate and a lot of sentiment for changing things around.

Trump bragged of Republicans riding his electoral coattails during his speech to the party's midterm convention in Dallas this month, building his strategy on the premise that voters turn out for him and not for anyone else. His appeal is effective largely among self-identified MAGA supporters; 71 percent say in this poll that their vote for Congress is mostly a vote for the president. But with absentee and mail voting already underway in a handful of states, the poll suggests Trump's influence may have the opposite effect on other voters. Overall, 45 percent of registered voters and 54 percent of independents say their vote will be mostly to express their opposition to Trump. Eight in 10 Democrats are motivated to vote against Trump. Just 24 percent of voters and 12 percent of independents say they are voting to show support for the president.

According to NPR, the poll found that most voters agree the 2026 midterms are all about Trump, and they disapprove. The survey underscores how the president's unpopularity has become an outsize factor in why most voters say they want Democrats to win the midterms.

Why It Matters

The findings carry significant implications for control of Congress. The generic ballot lead for Democrats, if sustained through Election Day, would likely translate into substantial gains in the House and possibly the Senate. The 25-point advantage among independents is particularly alarming for Republicans, as that group often decides competitive races in suburban and swing districts.

Republicans have poured cash into key races, hoping to blunt the Democratic advantage. According to The Guardian, the party's financial firepower could still be decisive, but the polling suggests the fundamentals are working against them. The president's low approval ratings, combined with rising prices and the ongoing Iran war, have given Democrats a consistent advantage in national surveys.

The Senate map is especially troubling for the GOP. The Washington Post reported that Republicans privately say the key battleground for Senate control may be out of reach as nominee Michael Whatley's ties to the president bog him down in North Carolina. The state, once considered a reliable Republican stronghold, is now seen as deeply worrisome by GOP strategists. Similar concerns are emerging in Georgia, another state Trump won two years ago.

Meanwhile, the economic policies championed by Trump are beginning to have a tangible impact on voters. The New York Times reported that the tax cuts in Trump's signature One Big Beautiful Bill were the Republicans' answer to voters' economic struggles, but its health care and food assistance cuts are taking a toll. That combination of tax cuts and benefit reductions is proving politically problematic as the election approaches.

Political Context

The midterm elections historically favor the party out of power, and 2026 appears to be following that pattern. Trump's decision to make the election a referendum on his presidency has energized his base but appears to have galvanized opposition even more. The PBS News/NPR/Marist poll found that 8 in 10 Democrats are motivated to vote against Trump, while just 24 percent of voters overall say they are voting to show support for the president.

Republican-led states have attempted to redraw House districts in the party's favor, but forecasters have still moved ratings of battleground races almost uniformly in Democrats' favor. That suggests the national environment is strong enough to overcome some of the structural advantages Republicans sought to create through redistricting.

The president's strategy of tying Republican candidates closely to himself has worked in some primary contests but may be a liability in general election matchups. In North Carolina, Whatley's ties to Trump are cited by Republicans as a key reason the Senate race may be slipping away. The Washington Post reported that Republicans privately acknowledge the state may be out of reach.

The Iran war and rising prices have also contributed to the sour mood. Voters are concerned about the economy and foreign policy, and they appear to be taking out their frustrations on the party in power. The One Big Beautiful Bill's cuts to health care and food assistance have added to the affordability squeeze for many families, according to the New York Times.

What Officials and Groups Are Saying

Democratic strategist Joel Benenson, commenting on the poll, described the numbers as devastating for Republicans, according to PBS. The sentiment was echoed by other analysts who noted the breadth of the Democratic advantage among key demographic groups.

Lee Miringoff of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion said the Democrats are sitting in a very good place, pointing to widespread grumbling in the electorate and a strong desire for change. His comments were reported by PBS.

Republicans have publicly expressed confidence that their financial advantage and ground game will close the gap, but privately many acknowledge the challenge. The Washington Post reported that GOP officials are deeply worried about North Carolina, a state that has been a reliable part of their Senate firewall.

The White House has continued to argue that Trump's policies will ultimately benefit voters, but the polling suggests that message is not breaking through. The president's approval ratings remain low, and a majority of voters say their vote will be a referendum on him.

Timeline

  • Two weeks ago: Trump headlines Republican midterm convention in Dallas, dangles $5,000 checks and warns of a communist country if Democrats win.
  • September 22: PBS News, NPR and Marist release poll showing Democrats leading 53-41 on generic ballot.
  • September 23: The Guardian reports Republican jitters grow as unpopular Trump fuels midterm bloodbath fears.
  • September 23: Washington Post reports GOP deeply worried about Senate race in North Carolina.
  • September 23: New York Times reports One Big Beautiful Bill is starting to bite before the election.
  • November 3: Election Day.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the latest polling show?

The PBS News/NPR/Marist poll found Democrats leading Republicans 53 percent to 41 percent on the generic congressional ballot. Independents favor Democrats by 25 points.

Why is Trump a factor in the midterms?

About 7 in 10 voters say Trump is a factor in their vote for Congress. While 71 percent of MAGA supporters say their vote is mostly for the president, 45 percent of all voters and 54 percent of independents say their vote is mostly to oppose him.

Which Senate races are most concerning for Republicans?

North Carolina and Georgia are key battlegrounds. The Washington Post reported that Republicans privately say North Carolina may be out of reach as nominee Michael Whatley's ties to Trump bog him down.

How is the One Big Beautiful Bill affecting the election?

The New York Times reported that the bill's tax cuts were meant to address economic struggles, but its health care and food assistance cuts are taking a toll on voters ahead of the election.

What happens next?

Election administrators in several states are already sending out mail ballots. The election is on November 3. Forecasters have moved ratings of key races in Democrats' favor.

What Happens Next

With mail ballots already being sent in several states, the window for Republicans to change the trajectory of the race is narrowing. The party has poured cash into key contests, but the polling suggests the national environment remains strongly tilted toward Democrats. The president's low approval ratings and the economic impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill are likely to remain central issues through Election Day.

Republicans are hoping that their financial advantage and a late push on the ground can close the gap, particularly in Senate battlegrounds like North Carolina and Georgia. But private worries are mounting, and forecasters have moved ratings almost uniformly in Democrats' favor. The coming weeks will determine whether Trump's strategy of making the election a referendum on himself ultimately helps or hurts his party.

For readers, the key takeaway is that the 2026 midterms are shaping up to be a decisive moment for the final phase of Trump's presidency. The outcome will determine control of Congress and the direction of policy on taxes, health care, and foreign affairs. With less than six weeks to go, the story is far from over.