Israel is preparing to vote on October 27 in a general election that many observers regard as one of the most consequential in the country's modern history, yet the campaign has been overshadowed by a military lockdown in Hebron and an unprecedented digital war between the two major blocs. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his political opponents are tied in the polls, with neither side projected to command the 61 seats required for a governing majority. At the same time, Israeli forces have imposed a sweeping closure across the occupied West Bank, displacing thousands of Palestinians and closing all land crossings on the day of the vote. Online, both sides are deploying armies of social-media bots, AI-generated videos, and deepfakes to sway a highly anxious electorate, transforming what should be a routine parliamentary contest into a multidimensional contest fought simultaneously in the West Bank, in the digital sphere, and across the region's broader security environment.

Main Story

The vote on Tuesday marks the first time since October 7, 2023, that Israeli citizens have elected all 120 members of the Knesset. The Hamas-led attacks of that day triggered a military campaign in Gaza that has dominated national life for nearly three years, and the election is being framed by many as a referendum on Netanyahu's handling of that crisis and the wider regional conflict.

Polls available in the final days before the election show a virtual dead heat. The opposition bloc, anchored by retired Lieutenant General Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, is projected to win roughly 52 seats. Netanyahu's alliance, which includes Likud, the far-right Jewish Power party led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, the Religious Zionism party led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, and ultra-Orthodox parties, is projected to win about 50 seats. Under Israel's proportional representation system, no single party has ever won an outright majority of 61 seats, so the outcome will depend on coalition negotiations that may involve parties representing Israel's Palestinian citizens.

In late September, four opposition parties — Yashar, the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu, and the Together alliance — signed a non-aggression pact, agreeing to work together to form a government if they defeat Netanyahu. However, most opposition parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the Palestinian-led parties, which means the opposition could also struggle to assemble a governing majority if the polls hold.

The West Bank Lockdown

The political contest is unfolding against the backdrop of a serious military operation in Hebron. On Friday, two armed Palestinian men attacked an Israeli army reserve base near Hebron, killing two soldiers. Both attackers were killed by Israeli forces. In response, Netanyahu ordered a full lockdown of the West Bank, and Defence Minister Israel Katz confirmed that around 2,000 people had been forcibly displaced.

Al Jazeera reported that Israeli forces have turned Palestinian homes in the Khallat Manna and Dahiyat al-Zaytoun areas of southern Hebron into barracks and observation posts. The Palestinian news agency Wafa, cited in Al Jazeera's reporting, said the evictions followed forced displacement orders delivered over loudspeakers late at night. The Palestinian Prisoner's Society told Al Jazeera that Israeli forces had detained at least 47 Palestinians across Hebron since Friday, with 293 families — roughly 2,200 people — displaced. Among the displaced were 127 infants, 81 pregnant women, 26 people with disabilities, 134 Palestinians with chronic illnesses, and 265 people over the age of 60.

Israeli settlers also began establishing two new outposts on Palestinian-owned land in Yatta, south of Hebron, according to Wafa. Hebron Mayor Yousef al-Ja'bari told Al Jazeera that the city and several neighboring villages were under a complete blockade. The Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of Hebron and the broader West Bank, has called for international pressure on Israel to protect Hebron's residents.

The Israeli army announced on Sunday that it would bar Palestinian workers from entering most areas of the West Bank from Sunday through Monday and would close all land crossings into and out of the territory on Tuesday, election day. The announcement came the day after the Hebron lockdown began, linking the military operation directly to the electoral calendar.

Why It Matters

The consequences of Tuesday's vote extend well beyond Israel's borders. Al Jazeera's explainer notes that the election could determine whether the country's most far-right government in decades remains in power or is replaced by a centre-right administration under Eisenkot. Both the occupation of the West Bank, the fate of Gaza, and Israel's posture toward neighboring states are shaped by the policies of whichever government emerges from the coalition talks.

Al Jazeera contributor Diana Buttu, a Palestinian-Canadian lawyer and political analyst, argued in an opinion piece that the election is likely to reinforce rather than change Israel's policies toward Palestinians, describing the continued colonization of the West Bank and destruction in Gaza as the shared policy baseline of nearly all major candidates. In contrast, Yossi Mekelberg, senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, wrote that a change of government, while not ending the occupation, could rein in the far-right coalition and ease tensions across the region.

Foreign diplomats have asked Israeli officials about the future of the two-state solution and reconstruction plans in Gaza, assuming that Netanyahu's departure would alter the trajectory. Whether that assumption holds will depend not only on who forms the next government but on whether the new administration is willing to confront the legal and humanitarian realities of a conflict that has generated pending war crimes indictments, rulings at the International Court of Justice, and a growing body of documentation from human rights organizations.

Political Context

Israel's proportional representation system requires parties to negotiate alliances to secure a governing majority. No single party has ever won 61 seats. The election is effectively a contest between two broad blocs: the religious-nationalist coalition led by Netanyahu and the opposition alliance led by Eisenkot. The ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, which have previously joined Netanyahu's coalition multiple times but also walked away, most recently in 2025, could serve as swing factors on either side.

Al Jazeera's explainer outlines eight possible outcomes, ranging from Netanyahu assembling a new coalition with the existing far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners to a full opposition-led government under Eisenkot. A third scenario involves a hung parliament in which neither bloc can form a government, potentially leading to a repeat election or a national unity arrangement. The Palestinian-led parties, which together are projected to win around 14 seats according to Channel 12's final bloc breakdown, are perceived by many as the kingmakers who could tip the balance.

What Officials and Groups Are Saying

Defence Minister Israel Katz, in an interview with the public broadcaster Kan, addressed the Hebron displacement, stating that the displaced residents would not be allowed to return to their neighbourhood until the military had finished dealing with all the Hamas issues in Hebron. The Israeli army's statement on the closure of crossings was issued on Sunday, confirming the bar on Palestinian workers from Sunday through Monday and the full closure of land crossings on Tuesday.

Hebron Mayor al-Ja'bari told Al Jazeera that the city and several neighboring villages were under a complete blockade and that 2,200 people had been forced from their homes. The Palestinian Authority has called for international pressure on Israel to protect Hebron's residents, and the group said residents were given little time to prepare when evacuation orders were announced late at night over loudspeakers.

In the digital campaign, Mauricio Lapchik, director of the Joint List's Hebrew-language campaign, told Al Jazeera that the use of AI technology was deepening an already unequal playing field, as the opposition had fewer resources than Likud. The Joint List, which represents the Palestinian citizens of Israel, has been central to the coalition math in this election.

Timeline

  • October 7, 2023: Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel, killing more than 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages. Israel's subsequent military campaign in Gaza and broader regional conflicts reshape the political landscape.
  • 2025: The ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism withdraw from Netanyahu's coalition, setting the stage for the 2026 election.
  • Late September 2026: Four opposition parties sign a non-aggression pact to form a government together if they defeat Netanyahu.
  • October 23, 2026: Two Palestinian gunmen attack an Israeli army reserve base near Hebron, killing two soldiers. Both attackers are killed. Netanyahu orders a full lockdown of the West Bank.
  • October 24–25, 2026: Israeli forces conduct hundreds of raids in Hebron, displace around 2,200 people, and turn homes into military posts. Settlers begin establishing two new outposts in Yatta.
  • October 25, 2026: The Israeli army announces that all land crossings with the West Bank will close on election day, October 27. Palestinian workers will be barred from most West Bank areas from Sunday through Monday.
  • October 27, 2026: General election for all 120 Knesset seats.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who are the main contenders in Israel's October 27 election?

The two principal blocs are the religious-nationalist coalition led by Prime Minister Netanyahu and the opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot, a retired lieutenant general and former Chief of Staff. Polls project the opposition at roughly 52 seats and Netanyahu's bloc at about 50, with Palestinian-led parties holding the balance of power.

Why is the West Bank lockdown happening at the same time as the election?

The lockdown in Hebron began after two Palestinian gunmen killed two Israeli soldiers on Friday, October 23. Netanyahu ordered a full closure of the West Bank in response. The Israeli army then announced that all land crossings would close on election day, October 27, linking the military operation to the electoral calendar.

How are bots and deepfakes affecting the campaign?

Both the Netanyahu and opposition camps are deploying social-media bots, AI-generated videos, and deepfake content to mobilize supporters and attack opponents. Al Jazeera reported that dozens of bots originally created to undermine the Iranian government were repurposed to spread campaign propaganda supporting Likud. The Joint List's campaign director noted that the use of technology was deepening an unequal playing field.

What happens if neither bloc wins 61 seats?

If neither side secures a majority, coalition negotiations will determine the outcome. The Palestinian-led parties, projected to win around 14 seats, could become kingmakers. A hung parliament could lead to a repeat election, a national unity arrangement, or a minority government dependent on external support.

Why does this election matter beyond Israel?

The election could shape policies affecting the occupation of the West Bank, the war in Gaza, and Israel's posture toward neighboring states. Analysts differ on whether a change in government would alter the fundamental direction of those policies, but the outcome will influence regional security dynamics and international diplomatic engagement.

What Happens Next

Israelis will vote on Tuesday in an election that will determine whether Netanyahu, who has been in power for nearly two decades over the past three decades, remains in office or whether a new government emerges under Eisenkot or another figure. The coalition talks that follow will be critical: without a clear 61-seat majority, the result will depend on negotiations with the ultra-Orthodox parties and the Palestinian-led bloc. Meanwhile, the Hebron lockdown and the closure of West Bank crossings on election day will continue to shape the lived experience of Palestinian residents and add a layer of international scrutiny to the political contest. The outcome will have implications for Gaza, the broader Middle East, and the legal and diplomatic landscape surrounding the conflict. Readers should follow the coalition negotiations in the days after the vote, the status of the Hebron displacement, and any international response to the decision to close all land crossings on election day.