The Congressional Budget Office estimates the U.S. war with Iran has directly cost about $38 billion between Feb. 28 and Aug. 1, and could run $2 billion to $3 billion per month for as long as it continues. The independent estimate, released Tuesday, collides with a Pentagon inspector general's finding that the conflict has drained U.S. munitions stockpiles and created resupply bottlenecks — undercutting President Donald Trump's repeated claim that American supplies are virtually limitless.

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The Congressional Budget Office's Tuesday report provides the most detailed independent accounting yet of the financial toll of the U.S. war with Iran. According to CBS News, the nonpartisan office estimated the conflict has directly cost about $38 billion between Feb. 28 and Aug. 1, a figure that excludes repairing U.S. bases in the region damaged during the fighting. The CBO further projected that the war could cost approximately $2 billion to $3 billion per month for as long as it continues, with costs potentially rising during tit-for-tat exchanges of fire with Iran.

The estimate landed the same day as a Pentagon inspector general's report that confirmed the war has led to shortfalls in munitions and a bottleneck in resupply. As BBC News reported, the independent watchdog found that the U.S. spent more than $22 billion on munitions from February through June, resulting in strategic inventory shortfalls. The report also noted equipment losses totaling $3.7 billion and other expenditures of $7.4 billion, bringing total spending on the war to $33.4 billion from Feb. 28 to June 30 — a figure that the CBO's broader estimate later surpassed.

The inspector general's findings directly contradict President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly denied the U.S. is facing shortages. Trump has claimed U.S. munitions supplies are virtually unlimited and dismissed reporting to the contrary as fake news. In a Truth Social post on Sept. 3, he asserted that the U.S. had virtually unlimited amounts of ammunition and was stockpiling and preparing for any contingency. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed that message in an Aug. 4 post on X, describing news reporting on the shortages as not true.

Yet the independent watchdog's report offers a first-of-its-kind glimpse into U.S. weapons stockpiles, data that is typically classified. It did not disclose exactly how many weapons remain but confirmed the inventory shortfalls and revealed industrial base bottlenecks for munitions resupply. The report added that the Defense Department is now working to streamline procurement processes and production lead times to address the shortages and respond rapidly to a contingency.

Why It Matters

The dual reports raise fundamental questions about the sustainability of the U.S. military campaign and the accuracy of the administration's public messaging. The CBO noted that replacing munitions accounts for the majority of the costs incurred during the war. In particular, the large expenditure of interceptor missiles used to defend against incoming missiles leaves behind a reduced inventory of interceptors for several years, according to the report.

The CBO warned that the shortfall would become especially problematic if a conflict arose with an opponent whose arsenal included large numbers of ballistic and cruise missiles. The report pointed out that China maintains such an arsenal and could employ it if there were a conflict over Taiwan. That assessment underscores how the Iran war has strained U.S. military readiness beyond the immediate theater, potentially weakening deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.

A late July estimate from the Center for Strategic and International Studies found that stocks of some interceptors — such as the Patriot missile and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD — were significantly depleted, in some cases by more than half. The CBO report said a comparison of the reported use of interceptors with the number the Pentagon has purchased indicates the U.S. has probably used between one-half and two-thirds of its inventory of those munitions since June 2025. Those munitions include Patriot and THAAD interceptors as well as the Navy's Standard Missiles 3 and 6.

The economic ripple effects extend beyond the battlefield. The CBO estimates inflation during the first quarter of 2027 could be 0.5% higher than what was projected before the war because of rising energy prices, according to The Hill. That projection suggests the conflict is already feeding into broader economic pressures that could affect American consumers and businesses well after the fighting ends.

Political Context

The reports arrive at a politically sensitive moment for the administration, which has sought to cast the war as a decisive and affordable success. The White House has rejected the watchdog's assessment. Spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in a statement Tuesday that the United States military has more than enough munitions, ammo, and stockpiles to serve all of the Commander-in-Chief's strategic goals and beyond. Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of forces in the Middle East, recently told 60 Minutes that he was not concerned at all and that U.S. forces were well-armed and ready for any contingency.

But the CBO's analysis was limited by the fact that the Defense Department did not respond to requests for information on the costs of the conflict, according to The New York Times. That lack of cooperation from the Pentagon raises questions about transparency and whether the administration is fully accounting for the war's fiscal impact. The CBO's estimate of $38 billion is likely conservative, as it does not include base repairs or potential long-term costs such as veterans' care and replenishment of depleted stockpiles.

The inspector general's report also noted that the Defense Department is working to streamline procurement processes and production lead times. However, the industrial base bottlenecks identified in the report suggest that ramping up production of advanced munitions is not a quick fix. The U.S. defense industrial base has long faced capacity constraints, and the high-intensity demands of the Iran war have exposed vulnerabilities that could take years to resolve.

What Officials and Groups Are Saying

The White House has maintained a defiant stance. Spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the military has more than enough munitions to serve all strategic goals and beyond. President Trump has repeatedly characterized reports of shortages as false and, in one instance, treasonous. Defense Secretary Hegseth has also dismissed the reporting as not true.

Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of U.S. forces in the Middle East, told 60 Minutes he was not concerned at all and that U.S. forces were well-armed and ready for any contingency. However, the Pentagon inspector general's report and the CBO's analysis present a different picture, one of depleted inventories and rising costs that could constrain U.S. military options in the months ahead.

The CBO's report also highlighted the potential for the war to drive up inflation early next year. According to The Hill, the nonpartisan office estimated that the main economic impact of the conflict would be felt through higher energy prices, which could push inflation 0.5% higher in the first quarter of 2027 than previously projected. That assessment adds a domestic economic dimension to a war that has largely been debated in national security terms.

Timeline

  • Feb. 28, 2026: U.S. war with Iran begins.
  • February–June 2026: U.S. spends more than $22 billion on munitions, leading to strategic inventory shortfalls, per the Pentagon inspector general.
  • June 30, 2026: Total U.S. spending on the war reaches $33.4 billion, including $3.7 billion in equipment losses and $7.4 billion in other expenditures.
  • Late July 2026: CSIS estimates that stocks of some interceptors, such as Patriot and THAAD, are significantly depleted, in some cases by more than half.
  • Aug. 1, 2026: CBO estimates the war has directly cost about $38 billion from Feb. 28 to this date.
  • Aug. 4, 2026: Defense Secretary Hegseth describes news reporting on shortages as not true.
  • Sept. 3, 2026: President Trump claims the U.S. has virtually unlimited amounts of ammunition.
  • Sept. 15, 2026: CBO releases its cost estimate; Pentagon inspector general report confirms munitions shortfalls and resupply bottlenecks.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much has the Iran war cost the United States?

The Congressional Budget Office estimates the war has directly cost about $38 billion between Feb. 28 and Aug. 1, 2026. That figure does not include repairing U.S. bases damaged during the conflict.

What did the Pentagon inspector general find?

The inspector general found that the war has led to shortfalls in munitions and a bottleneck in resupply. The U.S. spent more than $22 billion on munitions from February through June, resulting in strategic inventory shortfalls.

How does this contradict President Trump's claims?

Trump has repeatedly said U.S. munitions supplies are virtually unlimited and dismissed reports of shortages as fake news. The inspector general's report and the CBO's analysis directly contradict that assertion.

What are the potential economic consequences?

The CBO estimates inflation could be 0.5% higher in the first quarter of 2027 due to rising energy prices. The war could also cost $2 billion to $3 billion per month for as long as it continues.

Which weapons systems are most affected?

Interceptor missiles such as the Patriot, THAAD, and the Navy's Standard Missiles 3 and 6 have been heavily used. The CBO estimates the U.S. has probably used between one-half and two-thirds of its inventory of those munitions since June 2025.

What Happens Next

The CBO's report and the Pentagon inspector general's findings are likely to intensify congressional scrutiny of the war's costs and the administration's handling of munitions stockpiles. Lawmakers from both parties may demand more transparency from the Defense Department, which did not respond to the CBO's requests for information. The White House, meanwhile, shows no sign of backing away from its public position that U.S. forces are well-supplied and ready for any contingency.

For readers, the key takeaway is that the Iran war is exacting a growing toll — financially, militarily, and economically — that extends far beyond the battlefield. With monthly costs projected at $2 billion to $3 billion and interceptor inventories significantly depleted, the conflict's long-term implications for U.S. readiness and inflation are only beginning to come into focus. AHAD REPORTS will continue to follow developments as Congress and the Pentagon respond to these independent assessments.